(Preface: I really like statistics. I can't pretend to be an expert on analyzing baseball stats, but I really like them and think they can be valuable for helping to determine a player's worth/value. And since intangibles, by definition, cannot be measured, my math-oriented brain must look at the measurables, even though I am fully aware that statistics will never tell the whole story.)
Plain old ERA is good, but it is simplistic and limited. Which is better... a lower ERA at San Diego's pitcher-friendly Petco Park or a higher ERA at cavernous Coors Field in Denver? Well, the stat geeks have devised "Adjusted-ERA-plus" (ERA+), a stat I really like, to help answer this question. Simply put, ERA+ takes into consideration the ballparks and league averages.
ERA+ gives credence to those who say that Greg Maddux's 4.14 ERA (in 2007) as a Padre (98 ERA+) was significantly worse than Jeff Francis' 4.22 ERA as a Rockie (114 ERA+). Furthermore, ERA+ tells us that Ian Snell's rather-impressive 3.76 ERA at PNC Park (116 ERA+) was no better than Aaron Cook's rather-pedestrian 4.12 ERA at Coors (116 ERA+).
Have I lost you? I'm sorry. I love this stuff! Here's where I'm going with all of this...
David Weathers takes too much heat in this town for not being good enough. The last time I was at a game, the piece of crap game up a run. Can you believe it?! BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! Get that bum off the mound! He's terrible!
This mindset makes no sense to me. He has been, by far, the most reliable bullpen arm wearing Red for the last 4 years. Look at his numbers over the last 4 years...
Even though he pitches half his games at GABP, his ERA since 2005 is a very nice 3.64 (almost a run better than league average). So, at ages 35, 36, 37, and 38, Weathers has had his most success as a big leaguer, when the average age for a National League hitter is less than 29.
Let's look at the last full season of statistics. 102 pitchers (starters and relievers) threw as many innings or more than our boy Stormy. Only 17 of them had a better Adjusted ERA than his (130 ERA+). He was similarly effective as Trevor Hoffman, Brad Lidge, Roy Oswalt, John Smoltz, & Cole Hamels. He was more effective than Chad Cordero, Aaron Harang, Tim Hudson, & Carlos Zambrano.
Now, I'm not foolish enough to suggest that David Weathers is a better pitcher than Carlos Zambrano... everyone knows that a good starting pitcher is worth his weight in gold. But I am saying that Weathers is under-appreciated here in Cincinnati. There's not a team in MLB that wouldn't have loved to have Weathers and his numbers in the 7th or 8th inning over the last 4 years.
(And, ummm... last I checked, Weathers only blew 6 saves all of last season. Maybe he and The 46 Million Dollar Matador should change places.)
Maybe Bill Bray and Jared Burton will rise up and prove to be very good bullpen arms for the Reds for the next several years. But I have my sights set a little higher than that. I hope they are as effective as David Weathers has been.
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I would offer that the dislike of Weathers is more about his attitude than his actual pitching. Additionally, as I think about his performance this year compared to last year, I would be interested to look at those blown saves instance by instance.
The Reds had a much more reliable defense last year, and in some of those opportunities where he earned a save, he made things more than interesting, having the knack of consistently allowing the lead-off hitter to get to first base.
Additionally, out of spring training last year and in a couple of instance during the season he made some arrogant statements that he had not earned the right to make.
So even though he's having a pretty good year, I think the fans are all over this year because they remember the sins of the past.
Finally, while Coco is loco right now, I'm still not convinced that Weathers has the mentality to wrap things up in the ninth.
I'm back with research to show that Weathers had a rather average, if not below average, 2007. A few stats:
1. Performance in converted saves
Weathers had 33 Saves in 2007. But in those 33 saves, he allowed baserunners in 26 of those opportunities.
2. Performance in non-save situations.
Of Weathers' six blown saves in 2007, the team went on to win half of those games. But overlooked are five appearances he made last year when the game was tied. Of those five games, he lost four of them [earning the win in the other one].
3. Shutting down an inning.
Throughout 2007, Weathers appeared in total of 37 non-save situations. Of those 37, he allowed baserunners in 22 of them. Add those to the 26 save appearances where he allowed baserunners and we have them on in 48 of 70 appearances— so Weathers allowed runners on base in 69% of his appearances last year.
So I'm just saying: fans boo because they remember. Weathers has a short leash in their minds.
Look Sca! Someone cares!
hey! bellybutton lint!!
robyn, that comment was gold.
stuff like that only comes when you're about to burst.
also, i'm going to the game Friday. i'm going to boo like crazy if Weathers even throws a ball.
got anything for Tulo while i'm down there?
if tulo was even having a marginal year, yes, i'd beg you to have him sign my golden thong.
with the year he's having, however... i might send you with a flaming bag of poo. drop it off by his locker, will ya?
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