Hope Springs Eternal

Here we go again. This is the time of the year when I talk myself into the Reds being a contender. This is the time of the year when my optimistic/hopeful part of my brain tries to convince the pessimistic/realist part of my brain that:

• Kirk Saarloos and Josh Fogg just might become Jose Rijo circa 1990.
• Danny Graves will successfully make that transition to the rotation.
• Brandon Claussen will finally have that breakout season.
• Tony Womack is the answer to the world's economic crisis.

Not this year. I can't do it. I can't forecast this team scoring enough runs.

I could talk myself into believing that the pitching staff could be one of the best in the league:

• Harang will likely bounce back.
• I think Arroyo shows more of his 2nd half form.
• It is likely that Volquez's reality is somewhere in between his 1st and 2nd half. That means he's pretty good.
• I think Cueto takes a quantum leap this year and shows more top-of-the-rotation ability.
• Plug in Owings or Ramirez or Bailey or somebody to be a reasonable excuse for a major leaguer and that's one sweet rotation.
• The bullpen will be fine. Cordero + Burton + Bray + Rhodes + Lincoln + Roenicke = solid.

Well, heck... if the pitching is solid... they wouldn't have to score as many runs...

No. I can't do it. Not again. I won't do it.

Votto is going to be a force in the middle of this lineup for years to come. For the third consecutive year, I am going to predict that Encarnacion is going to break out with a .280/30/100...

...but I refuse to get excited about a club counting on:

• A leadoff hitter coming off a .251 AVG while playing home games in a hitter's paradise.
• Phillips batting 4th. (Look at his numbers vs. RHP... not good.)
• A LF platoon of non-roster players.
• A 32-year-old defensive specialist SS who didn't see the field last year due to leg injuries who happens to own a sub-.300 career OBP.

To me, this looks likes an offensive team with less power that will not only have trouble driving in runs, but simply getting on base.

I think this team can, if everything goes right, finish 2nd in the Central. StL, Mil, Hou, & Pit don't impress me at all. And while I don't expect the Cubs to make any noise in October (you know, since they are the Cubs, after all), I find it hard to believe that anyone else could win the division.

(The Cubs' order will feature Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Milton Bradley, Geovany Soto, and solid OBP contributors Ryan Theriot & Aaron Miles. Even if we assume quantum leaps for Bruce & Encarnacion, I see no reason to rationally believe that the division is winnable by our beloved Redlegs. Especially not with Willy Taveras in a starting lineup.)

I'll still be following this team like crazy. But I'm not as hopeful as I've been in years past.